Oil tanker rates are expected to remain robust throughout 2026, as sanctions continue to remove ships from the market. This trend is driven by a combination of factors: high demand from OPEC and its allies, a shrinking supply of available ships due to sanctions, and a global fleet that is aging and less efficient. The situation is further complicated by the 'shadow fleet' operating outside Western scrutiny and maritime standards, which includes many sanctioned vessels.
The cost of shipping oil has surged to approximately $130,000 per day for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) in recent weeks, thanks to high demand. This is despite the fact that nearly 44% of the global VLCC fleet is older than 15 years, and nearly 18% of supertankers in that segment have been hit with sanctions. Stringent vetting by major oil firms has led to the underutilization of older tankers after 15 years, as their efficiency declines and safety issues increase.
International sanctions on Russia and the diversion of shipping away from the Red Sea due to attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi militia have disrupted shipping routes, forcing vessels to take longer voyages to reach refineries. As a result, fleet utilization for VLCCs is expected to rise to 92% in 2026, the highest level since 2019. However, deliveries of new tankers to shipping companies are anticipated to increase later in the year, which could potentially cap rates.
The 'shadow fleet' is a significant concern, as it operates outside Western scrutiny and maritime standards. Many of these vessels have been hit with sanctions, and they typically sail without top-tier insurance coverage required by major oil firms and many ports. This fleet is getting more ungoverned, according to Jan Dieleman, the president of Cargill Ocean Transportation, and it's unclear if those imposing sanctions intended this outcome.
The overall fleet working with sanctioned oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela includes 1,423 tankers, of which 921 are subject to U.S., British, or EU sanctions. Of these, 702 are crude oil tankers, with 148 not subject to sanctions. The non-sanctioned global crude and fuel tanker fleet includes around 9,000 vessels, according to market estimates. The outlook for tanker rates could change quickly if more vessels resume voyages through the Red Sea, for example.
